A NEW APPROACH TO ANALYZING AND FORECASTING THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE COUNTRY
Abstract and keywords
Abstract:
The process of assessing the level of economic security and forecasting the effectiveness of decisions is an analysis of possible risks based on the quality, timeliness and completeness of incoming information, and also depends on the depth of understanding of the mechanisms of socio-economic processes that the analyst operates. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the speed of information acceptance and processing and the level of exchange of this information with the environment. The quality of decisions made largely depends on both direct and reverse information flows in the system itself, as well as on the degree of influence of external factors on the system. In this regard, for the analysis of complex, nonlinear cause-and-effect relationships and processes occurring both in the system itself and in the interaction of the system with the external environment, when making management decisions, it is necessary to look for new approaches and methods of analysis. One of these approaches, which has been increasingly used recently in conditions of instability of the political situation and socio-economic processes under the influence of global changes in the previously existing world order, is a synergetic-institutional approach using the concept of stratification of socio-economic space, which allows expanding the possibilities and field of research inherent in traditional forms and methods of system analysis [1; 3]. This solves the problem of creating models that are adequate to the changes taking place both inside and outside the system, as well as allowing us to consider socio-economic processes from the standpoint of their properties such as randomness, cyclicity, disequilibrium and nonlinearity. A new approach to the development of management models and evaluation of the effectiveness of control actions in the formation of policies that ensure the economic security of the country in the face of modern challenges and threats is proposed. The research used methods of institutional and synergetic approaches based on the concept of stratification of the economic space, allowing timely identification and elimination of systemic dysfunctionality of the object of research.

Keywords:
national security, socio-economic processes, synergetic and institutional approach, management, risks, uncertainty
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