FINANCIAL CRISES: THEORETICAL MODELS, EMPIRICAL RESEARCH AND THE PROBLEM OF FORECASTING
Abstract and keywords
Abstract:
The problem of the correlation of theoretical constructions and empirical research in solving the problem of forecasting financial crises is being considered. The possibility of using the interval-constructivist model of empirical abstraction in constructing a typology of financial crises is analyzed. The conditions and parameters of dating financial crises are determined, and the possibilities of their use in forecasting models are explored. This approach makes it possible to reduce the influence of the subjective factor and present financial crises not as binary events with rigid dating boundaries, but as heterogeneous phenomena that can be described by various theoretical models.

Keywords:
financial crisis, banking crisis, currency crisis, debt crisis, economic crisis, forecasting, indicators of approaching financial crises
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